Buy Low/Sell High - 4/26/10
The end of April marks my favorite time of year when it comes to fantasy baseball. We are 3 weeks into the fantasy baseball season, and inexperienced owners are as nervous as John Calipari when he sees "NCAA" on the caller ID because their first round pick is hitting .220. Now is the perfect time to pounce. This week is your best opportunity to buy low on many guys who are struggling out of the gates, and to sell high on guys who are starting out very quickly. Here are a few guys to target in trades, and guys you may want to avoid targeting, or trade them away yourselves.
What I look for are players whose numbers do not match the underlying trends. Such factors include K rates, BB rates, BABIP, LD%, HR/FB%, etc. They tell you a lot more about a player than the traditional splits tell you.
Buy Low
Mark Teixeira
This one is fairly obvious, as experienced fantasy owners know that he is a notoriously slow starter. I think I have proposed trades for him in every year of the last 5 years. No one really seems to fall for it. Big Tex slugged 39 homers a year ago, and OPS'd .948. He is suffering from an extrememly unlucky BABIP rate (Batting Average on Balls in Play) so far this year, and that is surely going to normalize over the course of a 162 game season, as will his low 10% HR/FB rate (rate at which fly balls leave the yard). In summary, Tex is still Tex, and he is going to flat out rake. Go get him for cheap if you can.
Ben Zobrist
A lot of people thought that Zobrist's numbers a year ago were a bit fluky. However, Zobrist's minor league numbers support the large power outburst supplied in 2009. All along, we knew that the power was there, the only doubt was whether or not he would get enough plate appearances. Chances are, whoever owns Zobrist in your league feels like he overpaid for him this year, and is starting to think those numbers are a fluke. This couldn't be further from the truth. In fact, you should be encouraged by the fact that Zobrist is showing a 30 SB potential so far this year, and should easily pass his total of 17 from a year ago. Zobrist has hit 16 fly balls this year, and not a single one has left the yard. For his career, he hits them out at about a 14% clip. Expect the power numbers to come very soon. What is encouraging is that he is hitting line drives at an outstanding rate, meaning he's making solid contact when he does hit it. His dual position eligibility only makes him more valuable.
Jay Bruce
His numbers are skewed by a horrible opening week, but he has OPS'd over .900 since that week. Last year, he suffered from a horrible .221 BABIP, and opened the year extrememly unlucky BABIP as well. His BABIP is beginning to normalize, and the hits are starting to come in bunches. He's hitting line drives at a much better rate, and walking more while striking out less. It's only a matter of time before the power really starts to show. I think he hits 30 HR's this year and OPS's over .850.
Slow starters that I would avoid targeting: Victor Martinez, Grady Sizemore
Sell High:
Jayson Heyward
Major chance to cash in on the hype machine right now. Heyward is one of the most exciting players in baseball right now, and one of my favorites, but he is still very young, and not as good as his numbers have implied so far. He is striking out at a very high rate, meaning he will be a very big batting average risk, especially when teams face him for the 2nd and third times. His 40% HR/FB rate is completely unsustainable, and will drop very soon. If you have Heyward, I'm guessing it didn't cost you too much to get him, so I'd cash in this chip ASAP before his value falls more than it has over the last week already.
Rickie Weeks
Weeks has started hot yet again, but is getting by on an unsustainable .380 BABIP clip. He is hitting line drives at a 17% rate, which isn't terrible by any means, but it shows that he is getting a lot of ground balls and fly balls to fall in as hits, which is something that can't be expected to continue. I would try to sell high to a Brewers fan, or someone that is ready to get rid of Aaron Hill, Brandon Phillips, or Brian Roberts.
I will try to track these players numbers from this point on, and will continue to update as the season goes along. Have questions/comments? Leave them here or hit the forum.
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